COVID-19 Impacts- No Conspiracy Theories

[BostonCharlie]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a problem with how the JHU map illustrates infection counts. Here is their legend:

jhu_map_legend.png (8.43 KiB) Viewed 8852 times

The circle for a region with 16,000 cases (like New York) isn't much larger that for a region with 1,600 cases (like California). IMO, they should use circles with areas that are roughly proportional to the number of cases, because that's my first, intuitive take when I see their map (and I bet I'm not the only one).

I'm going to guess that they're illustrating the data on a logarithmic scale, which does make sense since it's growing exponentially. But if you're doing that, why not also scale the data according to the population of each region? For example, California naturally has more cases than Wisconsin, but maybe Wisconsin is actually having a greater crisis, per capita. (PS: you can see the count for each region by clicking on its circle.)

Another thing, and probably more important: whenever they update their legend, they should change the color of the circles. I noticed they changed the legend scale once due to increasing case counts, but a casual visitor might not have noticed. He could have come away thinking that cases in Texas had dropped since the red circle was smaller.

[Sporkboy]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a problem with how the JHU map illustrates infection counts. Here is their legend:

jhu_map_legend.png

The circle for a region with 16,000 cases (like New York) isn't much larger that for a region with 1,600 cases (like California). IMO, they should use circles with areas that are roughly proportional to the number of cases, because that's my first, intuitive take when I see their map (and I bet I'm not the only one).

I'm going to guess that they're illustrating the data on a logarithmic scale, which does make sense since it's growing exponentially. But if you're doing that, why not also scale the data according to the population of each region? For example, California naturally has more cases than Wisconsin, but maybe Wisconsin is actually having a greater crisis, per capita. (PS: you can see the count for each region by clicking on its circle.)

Another thing, and probably more important: whenever they update their legend, they should change the color of the circles. I noticed they changed the legend scale once due to increasing case counts, but a casual visitor might not have noticed. He could have come away thinking that cases in Texas had dropped since the red circle was smaller.

Data visualization is a field of its own and most people haven’t studied it. Sadly, this probably includes people who make some of these maps. Of course, there could be an expert that puts stuff together and it gets lost in the translation to becoming web content. Data visualization is tricky and you can make misleading graphics if you know what you are doing and especially if you don’t. One is deceitful and the other is just poor form.

[tjcdas]

I'm not visual.

[attachment=0]Screenshot_2020-03-23-12-36-34.png[/attachment]

[yinzburgher]

I'm not visual.

Screenshot_2020-03-23-12-36-34.png

Same. I've been following the Worldometer website. The tables are much more helpful to me and the numbers on this site are updating sooner than the Johns Hopkins map.

WORLD STATISTICS

UNITED STATES STATISTICS

[MoT]

Mrs.MoT (and most others in her department) got emergency work from home orders today. Will still have to go in one day a week to do the paper shuffling the job requires.

[59yukon01]

Obviously at home I have too much time on my hand, but we should always have time for humor. [emoji4]

[BostonCharlie]

Some interesting data in an article from today's WSJ. When the NBA tested eight teams for the virus, 14 players were positive for the virus but 7 of those reported having no symptoms. Similarly, when passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise were tested, slightly more than half of the 634 positives reported having no symptoms. I imagine that some of those reporting no symptoms probably developed symptoms later on (the article doesn't say).

What isn't known is how many of those without symptoms are infectious, something that "isn't uncommon for respiratory viruses like the flu ..." The article did cite one case of an infected husband in China who showed no symptoms yet apparently was the source of his wife's infection. She was the one with symptoms, yet he was the only one in her circle who could have had outside contact with the virus. A slender reed, to be sure.

Anyhow, if somebody needed another incentive to keep social distance, even the possibility of "silent transmission" is a good one.

[Boourns]

Some interesting data in an article from today's WSJ. When the NBA tested eight teams for the virus, 14 players were positive for the virus but 7 of those reported having no symptoms. Similarly, when passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise were tested, slightly more than half of the 634 positives reported having no symptoms. I imagine that some of those reporting no symptoms probably developed symptoms later on (the article doesn't say).

What isn't known is how many of those without symptoms are infectious, something that "isn't uncommon for respiratory viruses like the flu ..." The article did cite one case of an infected husband in China who showed no symptoms yet apparently was the source of his wife's infection. She was the one with symptoms, yet he was the only one in her circle who could have had outside contact with the virus. A slender reed, to be sure.

Anyhow, if somebody needed another incentive to keep social distance, even the possibility of "silent transmission" is a good one.

Looks like we are joining Dallas County tomorrow: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus ... y/2337145/

Seems like stores are *just* starting to get restocked. Really hoping this announcement doesn't cause a second wave of hoarding. We are going to need toilet paper and paper towels soon.

[The Sultan of SoWhat]

Latest update from the township's mayor:

5 new cases, bringing the total to 27, 10 of whom are from the same old persons' home. The rest are spread out over the area and of different ages. The population of the township is @ 102,000.
Unfortunately, one of the old people has died.

[yinzburgher]

Some interesting data in an article from today's WSJ. When the NBA tested eight teams for the virus, 14 players were positive for the virus but 7 of those reported having no symptoms. Similarly, when passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise were tested, slightly more than half of the 634 positives reported having no symptoms. I imagine that some of those reporting no symptoms probably developed symptoms later on (the article doesn't say).

What isn't known is how many of those without symptoms are infectious, something that "isn't uncommon for respiratory viruses like the flu ..." The article did cite one case of an infected husband in China who showed no symptoms yet apparently was the source of his wife's infection. She was the one with symptoms, yet he was the only one in her circle who could have had outside contact with the virus. A slender reed, to be sure.

Anyhow, if somebody needed another incentive to keep social distance, even the possibility of "silent transmission" is a good one.

I've been reading some things about this too. I think this phenomenon should be widely acknowledged by now but unfortunately it isn't. It seems a fairly positive development when thinking about the overall mortality rate......and a very negative one when it comes to transmission. If this was the early days of the breakout or we had enough test kits for widespread testing it wouldn't be as big of a deal. You would be able to isolate all of the positive cases. But as it is now, we have no way to identify all of the vectors. To add to your examples, Iceland has tested a greater percentage of their population than other nations and has found a large portion to be symptom free. The town of Vo in northern Italy found the same thing. The rich and famous like Idris Elba, Rand Paul and some NBA athletes have shown the same. And many with the virus have very mild symptoms or just lose their sense of smell. I feel certain that many healthcare workers have it too but hospitals wouldn't dare test asymptomatic employees at this point bc there likely wouldn't be enough people left to work. Hospital employees might have originally picked up the bug from patients but they are likely now passing it along to each other. In theory you could pair the confirmed positive, symptom-free RNs, MDs, and RTs with the confirmed positive COVID pts. But that ain't gonna happen.

Some ramblings about work....... On Saturday I finished a 2 1/2 week job at a medium-sized suburban hospital. It's in a relatively well-to-do area so they normally have plenty of money and resources. Although as supplies became less available, we were having to wipe down, UV-zap, and re-use the shields for our PAPRs. Way better than having to re-use N95s though.....or not having N95s. Yesterday I drove to a different area to start at a big academic teaching hospital in CA. It will be interesting to see how different it is. I went to orientation this morning and they sent me home after 2 hours bc they said my file wasn't complete. It was......but somebody didn't click a checkbox to show that it was reviewed and approved. So now I start Wed. That was an expensive non-click for all parties involved. Both the hospital I'm coming from and the one I'm going to have CV-19 pts. Neither have a crazy number of cases but in both cases a large number of staff were exposed to a CV+ pt so they had to go out on leave/quarantine. That is one of their main reasons for bringing in contract employees right now. I feel a little bit bad about staying out west with the greater need being in NYC but this one is only 4 weeks and almost all of the NYC contracts would have required a longer commitment. Also I was already out in CA and this one started immediately vs most of the NYC jobs being at least a week out. And to be completely honest, I know I can at least get a lunch break every shift in CA.....no such guarantees in NY, especially now. Of course there is the pay to consider too. And this one will be 48 hours per week instead of 60. The next 4 weeks should give me plenty of time to see how things progress and think about what I might do next. In the meantime, I really hope the PPE situation improves in NY. It sounds pretty bad at the moment.

[Bbrou33]

I feel certain that many healthcare workers have it too but hospitals wouldn't dare test asymptomatic employees at this point bc there likely wouldn't be enough people left to work. Hospital employees might have originally picked up the bug from patients but they are likely now passing it along to each other. In theory you could pair the confirmed positive, symptom-free RNs, MDs, and RTs with the confirmed positive COVID pts. But that ain't gonna happen.

This. So much this. I've been saying this and talking to other healthcare workers about this for over a week. My girlfriend and I talk about it every night. It's very likely we are both infected and not showing symptoms. But we have no idea because we won't be getting a test unless we develop serious symptoms.

In regards to lack of ppe here in NYC, well, it's bad and honestly so irresponsible of the CDC and government. Every hospital is a little different, and every department is a little different, but for the most part you get 1 surgical mask and MAYBE 1 n95 mask for the day or the week. The girlfriend's brother is at a hospital just north of Manhattan and he gets 1 surgical mask and 1 n95 mask for the week. He works in medsurg. My girlfriend however, who has been testing patients for 3 days(only off today because she's also in school and has an exam today), does not get an N95 mask and only has been given a surgical mask that she uses all day. She tested a surgeon yesterday and he was so disgusted by their lack of her and her coworkers not having N95 masks that he directly called the CEO of the hospital in front of her. Sadly, it probably won't do anything because it's just a matter of lack of supplies. The government wasn't prepared. Hospitals weren't prepared. The world wasn't prepared.

The streets of NYC are MUCH quieter. Many people are staying in or avoiding others. At least from what I see they are.



Let's be Instagram friends @bbrou33

[tjcdas]

Right now Italy is the worst case scenario, if the USA reaches this point we are looking at 32,700 deaths.

Right now our death rate per million is 50 times lower than Italy.

[yinzburgher]

Serious question: Where are people buying hand sanitizer? Every time I've been in the grocery store, pharmacy, department store, it's been too late in the day to get hand sanitizer. I don't need a lot. I mostly just wash my hands with soap and water and try to think about what I'm touching. But I like to keep a small bottle in the car or in my pocket when I walk around. When I see it online it is usually sold out or doesn't ship for weeks. Is there some secret website or do I just need to line up at a store at 6am and wait for it to open?

[Bbrou33]

Serious question: Where are people buying hand sanitizer? Every time I've been in the grocery store, pharmacy, department store, it's been too late in the day to get hand sanitizer. I don't need a lot. I mostly just wash my hands with soap and water and try to think about what I'm touching. But I like to keep a small bottle in the car or in my pocket when I walk around. When I see it online it is usually sold out or doesn't ship for weeks. Is there some secret website or do I just need to line up at a store at 6am and wait for it to open?

Last Friday my girlfriend sent me on a mission to find 1 can of Lysol and 1 thing of hand sanitizer. I walked into 15-20 different places (CVS, Walgreens, Target, small pharmacies, grocery stores, etc.). Of all the places I stopped in, only 1 Walgreens had 1 can of Lysol and had just received a shipment of hand sanitizer and they were being kept at the register. They had also just received a shipment of Lysol counter cleaner.
I also asked a worker at just about every place about when they would get some or if they had some. The answer was either "we are all sold out and probably not getting more" or " we have no idea if or when anymore will come".
So I say to you, good luck. This all too place between 11 am and 12pm.
Before we had this hand sanitizer, my GF and I actual just put rubbing alcohol into tiny spray bottles and was using that

If you want, I have a full fresh 10 oz of it and could put some in a travel shampoo thing or something and send it your way if you want.

Let's be Instagram friends @bbrou33

[yinzburgher]

Serious question: Where are people buying hand sanitizer? Every time I've been in the grocery store, pharmacy, department store, it's been too late in the day to get hand sanitizer. I don't need a lot. I mostly just wash my hands with soap and water and try to think about what I'm touching. But I like to keep a small bottle in the car or in my pocket when I walk around. When I see it online it is usually sold out or doesn't ship for weeks. Is there some secret website or do I just need to line up at a store at 6am and wait for it to open?

Last Friday my girlfriend sent me on a mission to find 1 can of Lysol and 1 thing of hand sanitizer. I walked into 15-20 different places (CVS, Walgreens, Target, small pharmacies, grocery stores, etc.). Of all the places I stopped in, only 1 Walgreens had 1 can of Lysol and had just received a shipment of hand sanitizer and they were being kept at the register. They had also just received a shipment of Lysol counter cleaner.
I also asked a worker at just about every place about when they would get some or if they had some. The answer was either "we are all sold out and probably not getting more" or " we have no idea if or when anymore will come".
So I say to you, good luck. This all too place between 11 am and 12pm.
Before we had this hand sanitizer, my GF and I actual just put rubbing alcohol into tiny spray bottles and was using that

If you want, I have a full fresh 10 oz of it and could put some in a travel shampoo thing or something and send it your way if you want.

Let's be Instagram friends @bbrou33

Wow! I'll try to find some at a local store. Thanks for the reply and the offer. Maybe I'll take you up on it if I can't find any. Also, I might have finally found a reason to buy a bottle of Bankers Club Vodka.